Experts discuss orientations and solutions for Vietnam’s high and sustainable economic growth until 2045, Hanoi, June 3, 2025. (Photo: Trung Hieu/VOV)

At a workshop on orientations and solutions for Vietnam’s high and sustainable economic growth held in Hanoi on Tuesday, three scenarios for the country’s development until 2045 were introduced by a research team from the National Economics University. Vietnam aspires to become a high-income developed country by 2045 and to this end, it needs to obtain an average annual GDP growth rate of 9.5% between now and 2045.

The three scenarios include the "Quick Start" model with GDP growth of 11% per year during the first five years; the "Prolonged Acceleration" model with growth of 11% per year during the first seven years, and the "Growth Wave" model with   growth of 8 to 10% per year during the first five years, followed by concentrated acceleration in the subsequent period.

“Among the three scenarios, the third one is the most logically viable. According to this scenario, investment in infrastructure will lay a foundation for us to achieve higher growth while the extended preparation period will enable comprehensive reforms. We will be flexible in adjusting our growth target in each period,” said Professor. Dr. Tran Thi Van Hoa of the National Economics University.

Workshop participants said that achieving a "double-digit" growth trajectory presents numerous challenges concerning institution, resources, growth quality, labor productivity, science and technology, and internal capacity of enterprises. These challenges require Vietnam to adopt flexible, effective, and breakthrough development strategies.