The US-proposed 28-point peace plan was announced last Thursday. Drafted by US and Russian envoys, the plan is said to be inspired by the 20-point peace plan for Gaza that the US successfully advanced in September.
New peace effort
The 28-point peace plan that the US sent to Russia and Ukraine has four pillars of achieving peace in Ukraine, ensuring Ukraine’s security, strengthening Europe’s security, and shaping future relations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine.
Specifically, Ukraine would have to accept territorial concessions in the Donbass region, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia province, and the Crimean Peninsula; commit not to seek membership in the NATO military alliance; and limit the size of its armed forces to no more than 600,000 troops.
As for Russia, 100 billion USD in frozen Russian assets held by the West would be transferred into a US-managed fund for investment and reconstruction in Ukraine.
Ukraine and its European allies oppose this plan, arguing that it contains too many provisions favorable to Russia. Under intense diplomatic pressure from Europe and domestic political challenges, the Trump administration has removed the deadline requiring Ukraine to respond by November 27 and has begun negotiations with Ukraine and European countries in Geneva, to revise the original plan.
Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at the Ukraine Forum of Chatham House in the UK, said the initial plan is very difficult to accept.
“This draft includes 28 points that effectively include points that are non-starters from a Ukrainian point of view, including points that would slash the current capacity of the Ukrainian army, most worryingly include territorial concessions to the Russian Federation, including territory it currently does not hold in the Donbass regions,” said Barbieri.
Following US-Ukraine talks in Geneva on Sunday, both countries said “significant progress” had been made. Western media report that a revised 19-point plan has been introduced. While details have not been released, some European leaders are optimistic that Ukraine’s and Europe’s interests and views are better reflected in the new plan.
On Tuesday, 36 countries in the “Coalition of the Willing” held an online meeting with Ukraine to discuss European proposals. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said the ball is now in Russia’s court, while French President Emmanuel Macron said more clarity is needed on several details of the plan.
“The US-initiated plan is in the right direction toward peace. However, there are many details in this plan that must be discussed, negotiated, and further revised,” said Macron.
Voices from Russia
The big question now is how Russia will react to the revisions proposed by the US, Ukraine, and European countries. On Monday, Yuri Ushakov, aide to the Russian President in charge of foreign policy, rejected the European-proposed amendments, saying they were “not constructive” and unacceptable to Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declined to comment on the negotiations between Ukraine and Western countries and said Russia will carefully review the plan once it receives an official proposal from the US. He stressed that Russia expects any plan to be based on the understandings reached between President Putin and President Trump at their meeting in August in Alaska.
On Tuesday, President Trump sent special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow to discuss the new peace plan with President Putin.
Western media reported that US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met with a Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to discuss the peace process and accelerate negotiations to end the conflict.
Observers say that although the US’s peace plan has been welcomed by all sides, the deep disagreements between Russia and Ukraine and its European allies will make it difficult for both sides to accept.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “Obviously the Russians get a vote here, right? I mean, we began from the early stage of this process with our understanding of the Russian position, as had been communicated to us in numerous ways. So, no matter what we came up with today, obviously we now have to take what we come up with if we can reach that agreement with the Ukrainian side to the Russian side. That's another part of this equation. They have to agree to this in order for this to work.”
Another major issue, one that has been contentious in previous negotiations, is what mechanisms would be accepted by all parties. Ukraine and its European allies insist that they must be part of any negotiations, while Russia and the US prefer bilateral talks and reject trilateral talks.
President Trump said Tuesday that he will only attend a three-party meeting with Russian and Ukrainian leaders if he knows for certain that they will reach an agreement.