Russian soldiers on a tank in a separatist-held region in Volnovakha district, Donetsk province, eastern Ukraine. (Photo: Anadolu Agency)

Heavy impacts

There are no reliable independent international reports on the number of Russian and Ukrainian casualties. But most reports suggest that both sides have suffered tens of thousands of casualties. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense on Monday said at least 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the conflict.

Material damage to Ukraine is said to be very large, almost surely exceeding the 700 billion USD announced by the Ukrainian government at the beginning of June. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes. 10 million have fled to neighboring countries and only a small number have returned home.

For Russia, no damage figures have been announced. International sources say in the past 6 months Russia has suffered thousands of dead and wounded soldiers and the Russian economy has been crippled by sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.

Russian statistics show that Russia’s gross domestic product in the 2^nd quarter was 4% less than in the same period last year. The IMF forecast in late July that Russia's GDP this year will decrease as much as 6%.

Besides seriously affecting the people and economies of Russia and Ukraine, the conflict has disrupted global supply chains, pushed fuel and food price to record high levels in most regions in the world, increased inflation, and dragged down growth in most economies.

Prospects for resolving the conflict

After several rounds of fruitless negotiations, Russia and Ukraine stopped all negotiations in April, dashing hopes for a quick ceasefire. In an official statement on August 12, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Ukraine has no reason to hold talks with Russia  right now that starting a dialogue in the current circumstances would only "formalize" the failures of Ukraine and Europe.

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Gennady Gatilov told the Financial Times on Monday that Moscow sees no possibility of a diplomatic solution to end the war. He said there will be no direct talks between President Putin and President Zelensky, implying the likelihood of a prolonged conflict.

Several countries have suggested ways to break the deadlock and resume diplomatic contact between Russia and Ukraine.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres last week made a special trip to Ukraine and Turkey, which is an active mediator between Russia and Ukraine. During talks with President Zelensky in Ukraine last week, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he believes the conflict would soon be over at the negotiating table. He said both sides want to end the conflict, and that’s the key prerequisite for peace talks.