In its report titled “Vietnam – Q1 GDP to moderate amid rising inflation”, Standard Chartered sees the beginning of the year as more positive than the same quarter last year (up 3.32%) and maintains its GDP forecast for Vietnam this year at 6.7% and 6.2% in the first half of the year, which will increase to 6.9% in the second half.

March data is showing signs of recovery after the Lunar New Year Festival. Retail sales expanded 9.2% over the same period last year. Exports are forecast to recover, at 5.2% over the same period, while imports at 5%.

Standard Chartered’s report believes that for foreign direct investment (FDI) to rebound strongly, Vietnam needs faster GDP growth. According to the report, the State Bank will keep the refinancing interest rate at 4.5% until the end of the third quarter of this year and raise it by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter.