In a recent global research report on Vietnam titled “Vietnam – stronger but not easier,” Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered’s economist for Thailand and Vietnam said, “Vietnam continues to offer a promising medium-term outlook. To maintain rapid growth and competitiveness, Vietnam needs to upgrade infrastructure and prepare to lower carbon emissions.”

He said retail sales and industrial production have stayed robust despite the recent moderation. Exports and imports are starting to recover, though electronics-related trade remains tentative. Given re-emerging inflation concerns, inflation is anticipated to pick up to 5.5% in 2024 from 3.3% in 2023.

Standard Chartered Bank forecasts monetary loosening has likely ended, given Vietnam’s economic recovery starting to gain momentum.

Tim said he believes the Vietnamese currency continues to face headwinds, with a mild appreciation, targeting 24,000 by end-2024. Forex reserves are forecast to be rebuilt when US dollar strength abates.