The renewed violence erupted just 2 days after US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva ended in a deadlock. This is the second direct military clash between the two sides in less than a year, following last June’s hostilities.
A high-stakes gamble
In the initial wave of strikes, US and Israeli forces targeted senior figures within Iran’s leadership. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the conflict, along with several high-ranking military commanders.
In retaliation, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles at targets in Israel and at US military bases in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. The scale and intensity of the exchanges have rapidly escalated beyond last year’s confrontation.
Jonathan Panikoff, Director of the Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said the key difference between the 12-day conflict last year and the current crisis is a strategic shift by the US administration. In last year’s conflict, Israel led the offensive and the US joined in later to help dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and capability, an objective Israel could not achieve alone. This time, however, President Donald Trump has explicitly stated his intention to pursue regime change in Iran.
According to Panikoff, this is a risky calculation because it’s unclear how Washington intends to achieve that goal, and the longer the conflict drags on, the more adverse factors are likely to emerge.
He said: "The reality is, in the first day, it's easy that there's a lot of momentum, people are very excited. The longer the war continues and the more casualties that happen on the US side, the harder it is going to be for Trump to maintain the support, even if some of the Republicans in Congress and Republicans across the country and certainly some independents."
Dr. Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), called the conflict a gamble for all parties involved because the ongoing exchange of airstrikes is unlikely to quickly deliver a favorable outcome for either side.
"It's a huge gamble for all of the sides involved. There are many unknowns and unknowables in this scenario. It's a gamble for President Trump because there could be significant political costs for him in the tragic event of US casualties. There will be a public backlash against that in the United States. We're already hearing about why Congress hasn't been involved in the decision-making process behind launching this offensive. There's a gamble for Israel. We do not yet have a sense of what damage Iran could do to Israel and its citizens, although thus far it has been limited. And it's a gamble for Iran, certainly."
Ripple effect across the region
The intensifying conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran has pushed Middle East peace into a new perilous phase. The region has already been reshaped by nearly three years of conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and last June’s military clash between Israel and Iran.
Observers are particularly concerned that Iran’s retaliatory strikes on US bases in multiple countries will draw other states into the fighting.
Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said many people were surprised by the scale and rapidity of Iran’s response against US assets. He warned that retaliation could extend to the energy infrastructure, potentially triggering a global energy shock.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that an even worse scenario would be that the conflict widens and diplomatic efforts collapse.
The UN chief said: "Preparations had been made for technical talks in Vienna next week, followed by a new round of political talks. I deeply regret that this opportunity for diplomacy has been squandered. I call for de-escalation and an immediate cessation of hostilities. The alternative is a potential wider conflict with grave consequences for civilians and regional stability.”
The US-Israel conflict with Iran has already generated economic repercussions, sending shockwaves through global financial markets. From gold and cryptocurrencies to Asia-Pacific equities and US futures, risk aversion has dominated investor sentiment.
Global gold prices surged on Monday morning as rising military tensions fueled demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump’s statement on Sunday that military operations in Iran will continue heightened fears of a prolonged conflict and sustained instability.
Analysts are warning of the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor vital to global trade and energy flows. Such a development would erode Middle East stability and pose serious challenges to global economic and geopolitical stability.