While forecasting economic growth this year, Luc also said that international trade is decreasing, although the decline has slowed.
Over the past 8 months, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector was the mainstay of the national economy, ensuring national food security and being Vietnam’s traditional export earner.
The service sector maintained its growing momentum, although slower, and was an important growth driver. The industry and construction sectors have faced difficulties since last third quarter, but there have been signs of recovery since late in the second quarter of this year.
Luc put forth three economic growth scenarios for 2023, all of which say this year’s GDP growth will be lower than the 6.5% target set by the Government. Under the first scenario, GDP growth is forecast to be 5.2 to 5.5%. Under a negative scenario with a more severe recession in the world economy, offering fewer opportunities, the forecast growth will be 4.4 to 4.5%.
In a more positive scenario, involving an earlier recovery of the world economy and Vietnam’s ability to exploit new growth drivers, such as digital transformation and regional connectivity , growth could reach 5.5 to 6%, Luc said.
For the growth forecast for 2024 and 2025, according to the base scenario, the world economic situation is forecast to gradually recover, inflation will be controlled and gradually return to below 3% in 2025. Vietnam's economic growth will increase about 6% next year and 6.5% in 2025.
In the coming months, opportunities and challenges will be intertwined, Luc said, adding that regaining a rapid and sustainable development momentum will require many policies and solutions to ensure macroeconomic stability, improve the national economy’s resistance, consolidate traditional growth drivers, and create more space to effectively tap new growth models and drivers immediately and long term.
At the forum, Nguyen Xuan Thanh, a lecturer at the Fulbright Vietnam School of Public Policy and Management, said that even with many changes in economic structure and new growth drivers, it will be extremely difficult to achieve the GDP growth target of 6.5% by 2025.
Data from the General Statistics Office show that in the first half of this year the economy grew 3.72%. To achieve the 6.5% target, the last two quarters of the year must achieve a growth rate of about 9%.
Alexander Bohmer, Head of the South and Southeast Asia Division of the OECD Global Relations and Co-operation Directorate in France, said Vietnam’s GDP growth will be 4.9% and likely increase to 5.9% next year.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment says in the first 6 months of this year Vietnam’s economy grew 3.72%, the slowest growth in the past 12 years.