ICAEW says Vietnam's economy to grow 4.7% in 2023

This is expected to further rise to 5% in 2024, with a bright medium-term outlook.

In 2024, overall growth is likely to be subdued by normal standards. Although likely to nudge up to 5% from an estimated 4.7% in 2023, this would still be well below the pre-pandemic trend of 7%.

Despite below-trend growth in 2023 and 2024, Vietnam's miracle growth story probably hasn't ended yet. Vietnam has emerged as a key winner amid the global supply chain reshuffling and its share of global goods exports should increase further over the medium term, spurred by multinationals' China Plus One strategies, driving GDP outperformance relative to ASEAN peers until at least 2030.

Economic momentum has picked up in Q3 2023, but there are concerns about potential headwinds in 2024, finds Oxford Economics in its recent research commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). Factors weighing down the 2024 forecast include slow global growth led by the United States (US) and China, tourism bright spots losing their shine, and declining private consumption.

As a result of both external and domestic challenges, Oxford Economics projects Southeast Asia’s economy to grow by 4.3% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024, below the pre-pandemic average of 5% per year.