According to its annual World Energy Outlook for the period to 2040, demand growth will continue to increase even though there will be a marked slowdown in the 2030s. The agency’s central scenario is that demand for oil will rise by around 1 million barrels per day on average every year to 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018. Demand is then seen increasing by 0.1 million bpd per year on average during the 2030s to reach 106 million bpd in 2040.

The IEA said there will be a marked slowdown after 2025, but it will not lead to a peak in oil use, citing increasing demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation, and petrochemical sectors.