IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. (Photo: AFP/VNA)

According to IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack, foreign direct investment (FDI) is increasingly flowing between geopolitically aligned countries, supply chains are lengthening, and there has been a gradual increase in trade restrictions over the last five years or so. She said there could be a drag on growth from some of these factors.

Global GDP could fall by 1.8% in certain scenarios.Kozack noted that in a more extreme scenario - "a full reshoring scenario" - global GDP could decline 4.5%.  

In a recent interview with CNN, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that allowing fragmentation of the global economy to continue could ultimately reduce global GDP even more significantly.

It is important to find ways to reduce frictions, to concentrate on security concerns that are real and meaningful, and not go willy-nilly in fragmenting the world economy, Georgieva said.