Accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates last June cut off their diplomatic relations with Qatar. They banned their citizens from visiting Qatar and Qataris from entering their countries. They asked all Qatari citizens to leave their countries within two weeks. Other GCC member countries took similar actions. The Arab League led by Saudi Arabia expelled Qatar from the organization and asked Qatar to expel members of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas from Qatar. Saudi Arabia also asked Qatar to cut its diplomatic ties with Iran.

Root cause

The reason for the crisis was Qatar’s alleged support for IS, terrorism and an ideology of extremism but the root cause was the Iran issue. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries want Qatar to join their efforts to contain Iran’s influence.

Though Qatar rejects the ideology of Iran’s Shiite group, it has maintained cooperative and friendly relations with Iran and has participated in joint oil exploitation projects in the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, considers Iran its archenemy.

The dispute between Qatar and Saudi Arabia over their relations with Iran increased after US President Donald Trump’s visit, during which he and Saudi Arabia’s Emir called Iran a state sponsor of terrorism. Qatar urged its neighbors to reduce their criticism and improve their ties with Iran.

The crisis is in fact a regional power struggle. Until it is resolved, it will weaken stability in the region and the world.

Shadowed future

Repeated efforts were made in the second half of 2017 to ease tensions in the Gulf region but no progress was made while arms contracts worth billions of USD were signed.

At the Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in December, member countries failed to resolve the crisis. Qatar Emir Sheikh Timim bin Hamad Al Thani attended the summit, and Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent low-key representatives.

If the crisis continues, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain will likely come up with a tripartite agreements and Qatar will have to seek support beyond the Gulf region to protect its security and boost its economic growth. Other Arab countries will have to decide which side to support.