The G20 Summit convenes leaders of the G7, the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council and the 5 emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The G20 represents 63% of the global population and 84% of global trade.

Controversial issues

The recent incident in the Kerch strait between Russia and Ukraine has complicated US-Russia relations. US President Donald Trump threatened to cancel a planned meeting with President Vladimir Putin on the sideline of the summit after a Russian security force arrested 24 crewmembers and 3 vessels of the Ukrainian navy for allegedly violating Russia’s territorial waters in the Kerch strait, near the Crimean peninsula. Russia called the incident a provocation. The US described Russia’s action as a dangerous escalation and violation of international law and called for sanctions on Russia, but, France and Germany rejected the idea of sanctions and proposed a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

The G20 summit could become an arena for the US and China to sort out their trade dispute. Trump has recently been threatening China and warning that if negotiations fail, the US will impose tariffs on all imports from China. Trump also said a tariff of 10% will likely be imposed on Iphones and other electronic accessories imported from China.

Last week, the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, witnessed a fight between Washington and Beijing over reforms of the World Trade Organization and protectionism. Increasing tensions between the world’s two biggest economies threatens the success of the G20 summit.

Can the G20 succeed?

Most observers agree that the success of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires depends on mutual respect between nations. The trade war between the US and China could trigger a new cold war, or even an armed conflict, unless the two countries agree to pursue rule-based negotiations.