A complete phase-out

Under the plan adopted by a vote of 500 to 120, with 32 abstentions, Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be banned from the EU once the regulation enters into force early next year, and pipeline gas imports will be phased out by September 2027. EU member states may extend the deadline to the end of October 2027, if their gas storage levels fall below mandatory filling requirements.

For short-term supply contracts signed before June 17 this year, the ban on Russian gas imports will take effect on April 25 next year, for LNG and June 17, next year, for pipeline gas.

Long-term LNG import contracts will be allowed to run until January 1, 2027, in line with the 19th sanctions package. For long-term contracts for pipeline gas imports, the prohibition will kick in on September 30, 2027. However, depending on the level of storage filling, the ban can be pushed to November 1, 2027.

Any amendments to existing contracts must not lead to increased volumes or prices. Although the ban still requires formal approval at an EU minister’s meeting, expected in early 2026, that is largely procedural, and the EP vote is seen as having removed the final legal obstacle.

“Probably what makes me most proud is the fact that this is not something that we do temporarily. This is not something that we will take up to revision in six months and then if it's comfortable for domestic economic reasons we might start importing gas again. No, this is a no and it's a never again. We cannot repeat the mistakes of the past,” EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said.

Data from the European Commission shows that, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, EU countries have spent 254 billion USD on Russian energy imports and continue to pay about 47 million USD per day. This far exceeds the value of aid provided by the EU to Ukraine, a fact EU leaders called unacceptable.

Challenges ahead

Many EU officials hailed the legislation as a historic step, especially given doubts that the bloc could achieve this goal so quickly. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, the EU has reduced its share of Russian gas imports from 45% in February 2022 to about 13% today; crude oil imports from 26% to 2%; and coal imports from 51% to zero. However, a complete phase-out of Russian gas remains a challenging ambition.

A key issue is the divergence among EU member countries on the desirability of a complete phase-out. Slovakia and Hungary are heavily dependent on Russian gas and face contractual and geographical constraints that limit rapid diversification. As a result, they have strongly opposed a ban on Russian gas imports.

“We will consider the possibility of legal action. Everything depends on how the European Commission fulfills its obligations to Slovakia. I would like to reiterate that Slovakia voted against ending Russian gas flows. This decision, one that should require EU consensus, was adopted by a majority of member states, which violates fundamental EU principles,” said Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Fully ending Russian gas imports will require close coordination, substantial investment in energy infrastructure, diversification of supply sources from the US, Norway, and North Africa, and rapid development of renewable energy to replace cheap Russian gas, while ensuring energy security and avoiding economic disruption.

Currently, the EU’s main gas suppliers – Norway, the US, and Algeria – are facing capacity constraints or geographical disadvantages. Norway supplied 91 billion cubic meters of gas last year and is the largest pipeline supplier, but its production capacity is limited.

The United States supplies about 45% of the EU’s LNG imports, and while further expansion is possible, it would increase the bloc’s reliance on a single supplier.

North Africa, particularly Algeria, supplies 39 billion cubic meters of gas via pipelines and LNG, but growth potential is limited by domestic demand.

According to Tatiana Mindekova, a policy adviser at Ember's Europe Team, no supplier is now capable of fully replacing Russian gas.