The UK’s departure from the EU was determined by a public referendum in the UK in 2016. But negotiations on the divorce have not been easy. So far no proposed Brexit deal has been able to pass the House of Commons. A no-deal Brexit scenario, a No Brexit At All scenario, and a second public poll have all been discussed over the past few days.

Brexit deal stalled in the UK

In November negotiators reached deal covering the post-Brexit rights of British and EU citizens, a divorce bill of 45 billion euros, and the Northern Ireland border.  To avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland which is part of the UK and the Republic of Ireland which is part of the EU, the deal proposed to keep all of the UK in the EU tariff alliance during the transition period. This period is not specified but it’s presumed to last until the two sides reach a post-Brexit economic deal. During the transition period, Northern Ireland must abide by EU market regulations and accept other regulations stricter than in the rest of the UK.

Having reached a deal, both sides hoped the Brexit process would proceed on schedule. But many British MPs of both the ruling and opposition parties strongly oppose the deal. Four Ministers resigned to protest PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

According to a public poll, more than a half of British voters want another referendum on Brexit and half want to stay in the EU.

Dilemma

The UK is supposed to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. But if no deal is approved and nothing is done to extend the deadline, the UK will become a non-EU country without any transition. This means the UK will lose its access to the EU market and not be included in EU trade deals. If that happens, the UK’s economy will suffer devastating losses. According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, the UK’s GDP will drop 4% and the GDP of the 27 EU countries will fall 0.5%. There is a grave risk of chaos and violence, said the report.

In this context, the Prime Minister May’s only hope is to win a little more trust from the MPs and move beyond the current impasse. One British official said the UK is paralyzed and the clock is ticking louder and louder.