Vietnam's 9-month GDP growth rate from 2011 to 2022 (Photo: GSO)

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's economy is projected to grow stronger than the 6% to 6.5% for the year set by the National Assembly.   

At a National Assembly session in October, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh reported that the national economy has strongly recovered this year, reaching or exceeding 14 of the 15 economic targets, with strong growth in GDP and state revenues.

“The macro-economy is basically stable; inflation is under control; economic growth has recovered; and major balances of the economy have been ensured against difficult conditions. The socio-economic recovery and development program and three national target programs have been implemented, promptly removing obstacles and boosting several key national infrastructure projects,” said Mr. Chinh.

The highlight of Vietnam's economy this year is import and export. Despite slower global trade, Vietnam’s total trade turnover is an estimated 750 billion USD, 50 billion dollars higher than last year, with a trade surplus of more than 11 billion.

Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, attributed the result to the State management policy and the business community's efforts to fully tap traditional markets like the US and China, plus expansion into new markets.

Vietnamese exporters have made good use of new-generation free trade agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Hai added.

“First, we quickly stabilized and restored production after controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, creating a stable source of goods for export. Second, free trade agreements, particularly new-generation FTAs, have come into effect, driving us to seek ways to penetrate markets like Canada, Peru, and Mexico with which we haven’t signed an FTA,” said Hai.

He attributed another reason for the achievements to the government’s trade promotion efforts, administrative reforms, and other efforts to facilitate trade and maximize support for exports.

Another highlight of Vietnam's economy this year has been foreign direct investment attraction. Over the past 11 months, Vietnam attracted 25.1 billion USD in FDI. Disbursed capital increased 15% to 19.7 billion USD in the period.

Economists agree that Vietnam's macro-stability and improved investment environment are big advantages, which have made it a reliable destination for international investment.

Economist Dr. Le Duy Binh, the Managing Director of Economica Vietnam, a private consulting and research firm specializing in development economics, said that the FDI capital that was implemented last year totaled 19.7 billion USD, demonstrating investors’ confidence in Vietnam.

“Total retail sales in November increased 2% from the previous month. Everything indicates that investors and consumers have strong confidence in the economy. There have been some negative indicators in a few industries and businesses, but not in the economy as a whole. I think the news is encouraging to the economy, especially for investors who are pouring money into the bond and stock markets," said Binh.

International financial organizations continue to make positive forecasts for Vietnam's economy in 2022 and the coming years.

A recent report by the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) said that 45% of European businesses responded positively about business prospects in Vietnam. 42% of European businesses say they will increase their FDI capital to Vietnam.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank raised Vietnam’s economic growth outlook this year from 7% to 7.5%.

Standard Chartered Bank revised up Vietnam's GDP growth forecast in 2022 from 6.7% to 7.5% and forecast growth in 2023 of 7.2%, higher than its previous forecast of 7%.

Nikkei Asia rated Vietnam the leader in Southeast Asia and eighth in the world in post-COVID-19 economic recovery. Vietnam is predicted to become the 10th largest consumer market in the world by 2030.