Vietnam’s imports and exports continue to rise over the past 8 months of 2022.

Vietnam's economy is affected by many external factors, including the conflict in Ukraine, high prices of input materials, high fuel prices, high inflation in many countries around the world, the slow economic recovery of Vietnam’s major trading partners, and the pandemic’s new variations.

The Prime Minister and the Government have directed ministries, branches, and localities to implement the solutions set by the Resolution on socio-economic recovery and development.

As a result, Vietnam has kept its socio-economic performance over the past 8 months stable, with macro balances ensured and inflation under control, said Do Thi Ngoc, Director of the General Statistics and Statistical Information Department of the GSO.

She took the increase of the index of industrial production (IIP) for many consecutive months as one of the bright spots, adding, “In the first 8 months of 2022 the IIP surged 9.4% against last year.”

“Commercial and service activities recovered in most sectors. Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 8 months rose 19.3%. Passenger transportation has many bright spots. Vietnam welcomed more than 1.4 million international arrivals, a 13.7-fold rise from a year earlier. Import and export activities continued to maintain a high growth rate, with the total turnover estimated at nearly 498 billion USD, up 15.5%. The trade surplus was 3.96 billion USD. Inflation was kept under control. The average CPI increased 2.58% against last year, but was lower than the increase in 2020,” said Ngoc.

Vietnam earned 34 billion USD from goods exports in August, with a trade surplus of more than 2.4 billion USD last month and 4 billion USD over the past 8 months.

Economist Le Duy Binh, Managing Director of Econimica Vietnam   (Photo: Do Linh)

Economist Le Duy Binh, Managing Director of Econimica Vietnam, a private consulting and research firm specializing in development economics, said: “The surge in the trade surplus has supported our monetary policies against the current high pressure on the Vietnamese currency. With CPI increasing 2.5% and inflation rising 1.6%, the trade surplus is a bright spot in the economy. Many other economies are facing a harder struggle with high CPI and inflation.”

Another bright spot in Vietnam's economy is the number of newly registered businesses. In 8 months 150,000 enterprises registered or resumed operations, 30% more than last year. The number of enterprises withdrawing from the market also has been high, however. Some could not meet the requirements of the new economy and some couldn’t survive the difficulties caused by the pandemic.

Phan Chi Anh, Director of the Center for Business Administration Studies (CBAS) of the University of Economics, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, said, “The growth of the business and service sectors accounts for about 40% of the annual GDP growth rate.”

He added, “If we can’t support the sector, it’ll lead to risks in ensuring GDP growth. In addition to good development indicators, both the General Statistics Office and the World Bank have the same assessment of the recovery of the Vietnamese economy, with further attention given to bank bad debt, the slow disbursement rate of public investment, and the hike of CPI.” 

Economists say inflation pressure from now to the end of this year will be large, so fiscal and monetary policies should pay close attention to managing petrol and oil prices. Changes in the labor market and in consumer behavior also need to be closely monitored to maintain a high growth rate and not upset major economic balances.