Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky on two sides of the conflict (Photo: AP)

The Russian military said last Sunday that it launched a missile strike on Kramatorsk city in Ukraine shortly after Russia’s unilateral 36-hour ceasefire ended. Moscow said the attack killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers. Ukraine denied Moscow's claim. Analysts said Russia’s missile attack was an indication that fighting in Ukraine will not end soon.

Complexity on the battlefield

After nearly 11 months of fighting, Russia has taken control of large parts of southern Ukraine. Recently Moscow has adjusted its tactics by narrowing its control areas and increasing attacks with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles deep in Ukraine’s territory. Fighting occurs every day in multiple places. The Ukrainian forces have been continuously supplied with new weapons from the West, including long-range artillery and heavy armor.

US intelligence estimates that the fighting has left more than 100,000 Russian or Ukrainian troops dead or wounded, but Moscow and Kiev report much lower casualty figures. Observers say urban fighting and artillery fire have been ferocious and casualties on both sides have been huge.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's first deputy chief of staff, Sergei Kiriyenko, said last Sunday that “the tasks set by the President for the special military operation will be fulfilled. And there definitely will be a victory.”

Ukrainian officials rejected the Saturday ceasefire called for by Russia's Christian community, saying they would continue to attack Russian forces on all fronts.  

A Ukrainian soldier on a 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery at the front line in Donetsk on January 8, 2023 (Photo: Reuters)

Opportunities for peace talks

Despite the dire situation, the international community believes that opportunities exist for dialogue between Russia, Ukraine, and their supporters. First despite the fierce fighting, Russia and Ukraine have maintained the necessary dialogue mechanisms to conduct prisoner exchanges. 50 prisoners were released from each side last Sunday. In late October and early November, the two sides exchanged hundreds of prisoners. Analysts say the successful prisoner swaps could serve  as a basis for negotiating other issues, including a ceasefire.

Second, with bigger human and economic losses both Russia and Ukraine are facing great domestic pressure to end the fighting. Western governments, especially the European countries that have been most affected by the conflict, are also under pressure from their people to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It’s a thorny challenge to find a peace agreement. It will require more effort and more goodwill from all the parties.